Sales Predictions: Alicia Keys’ ‘Girl On Fire’ To Hit #1

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    Alicia Keys Girl on Fire TheLavaLizard
    Alicia Keys’ ‘Girl on Fire’ album cover.

    Alicia Keys has been working hard during the last few months while promoting her new album, ‘Girl on Fire’. Now, sales predictions indicate that her efforts will result in the set debuting atop the Billboard 200, despite generating the lowest first week sales of her career.

    ‘Girl on Fire’ is on track to enter the Billboard 200 at #1 next week with sales of 150K-175K copies. However, these figures represent a massive drop from the 417K units that its predecessor, ‘The Element of Freedom’, sold when it debuted at #2 on the chart in December 2009.

    Additionally, ‘Girl on Fire’ will sell even less than Keys’ previous slowest-seller, ‘Songs in A Minor’. The latter LP moved 236K copies during its first frame on the Billboard 200 in June 2001 before eventually selling over 6.3 million copies in the US as of October 2012.

    Watch the video for the lead ‘Girl on Fire’ single, which is also the album’s title track, below;

    Thoughts?

    • theman

      Something is fishy about these figure. She should be selling far more than this.

      • Marie

        I was thinking at least 300k. Alicia is still a big artist, and has a loyal fan base.

        • CheReiHino

          AK has lost a lot of fans, I’m surpised the album is expected to make it to #1.

        • lilkunta

          marie : ak HAD a loyal fanbase. She really disappointed us with her lying and cheating. Then she wouldnt even aknowledge it.
          Your happiness shouldnt come by causing some1 else’s pain!

          …how you get him is how you’ll loose him. kaseem will cheat on ak just like he cheated on mashonda and jahna.

      • lilkunta

        theman: I dont think these 3s are fishy. alot if us AK fans are really disappointed by her behavious. Plus the song GOF is so bad. The vocals are horrible. AK sounds strained.
        Beyonce–who didnt date and fvck and get pregnant by a married man– her cd ‘4’ sold 310k its 1st week which was a drop [3’s DIL sold 317; 6’s Bidet sold 541k; 8’s IASF sold 482]; and then it barely went platinum. Now we all know no question BK is a far better singer and so if that is how well she did AK should expect worse.

    • …..

      Months of promo + holiday season = 150-175k!?!

      HUGE FLOP.

    • sawa

      yeah but that loyal fan base run away after the whole swizzy scandal plus this is 2012 we are talking about, and this is RnB we are talking about, were u seriously expecting 300k in this era for this type of music.The album is enjoyable though

      • lilkunta

        sawa: yes ak really disappointed us loyal fans with her adultery. I dont think it being RB music matter. Bk’s album sales of ‘4’ were also low and she didnt have scandal I do wonder as the years go by will cd sell 100k and be #1 ?

    • Girrrl

      I can’t believe RCA gave her ALL the promo gigs and this is all they get in return. This is really shocking.

    • Mashonda

      This aint even the beginning ho! From your vocal chords getting snatched up to flop sales, you gon learn bitch.

      • ksw

        really though?

      • lilkunta

        hahahaha so funny mashonda!
        and yes ak’s vocals are HORRIBLE. i cant believe clive davis approved that cut. where is kerry brothers? he wouldnt have approved those shitty vocals.

    • olly

      It was the poor lead single, Hopefully the album will have long legs when she releases theh classics like 101. She’d need to do heavy promo though, except for when its all over the really good tracks are not radio material.

    • LK

      lol at the Novelty account above. Anyways, It’s R&B, nobody buys it anymore nor pays attention to it. Blame consumers.

    • Michael

      Alicia has fallen off in many ways.. The marriage scandal which, her team tried their best to cover.. Then that lead single.. It’s a nice song, but def not first singe worthy and doesnt compare to her previous recent singles ‘Unthinkable’ or even ‘No One’

      RCA skimmed Brandy on the promo and saved it all for Alicia. Brandy was basically doing random concerts across the US but for some strange reason didnt hit any of the late night shows. GMA was her only promo spot besides Black Girls Rock & the charity show. And I must say Brandy’s album was much better than Alicia’s..

    • theman

      The homewrecker thing is played out, that has nothing to do with anything. She is of course a major star, and her sales should be steady. Her first single was a good one. R&b will fall back in place. Being different doesn’t mean that someone has fallen off, she doesn’t have to release the same style of music constantly.

      • lilkunta

        homewrecker thing AINNT played out. AK fans are teens who are now young women, as well as aunties and mothers. Ak sang about respecting woman ( a woman’s worth) and karma, then knowingly dated fvcked and became pregnant by a married man. This is why ‘element of freedom’ didnt sell well, why the tour didnt sell well, and why this album isnt selling well. o and GOF is a horrid 1st single!

    • LouLou

      Good! RCA had better talent to promote and they chose her. I hope they learn from this.

    • LouLou

      If you think the marriage scandal didn’t effect her sales then you are crazy. I know tons of people that were huge Alicia fans before they found out and now don’t care for her. She lost a lot of fans. I was not huge fan, but still bought her music. I will never do that again. She just comes off phony to me.

      • Michael

        exactly.. Her whole image was women empowerment and %85 of her fans were women. Women dont like other women who are home wreckers… And regardless of if it was intentional.. The fact that she hid the relationship initially for damn near a year should tell you something

        • Tone

          Jesus! Where’d you get your information from? Was it Alicia herself? Could you tell her that I said “Hi!” I love her.

    • TrentisMySoulmate

      As a former AK fan, I am no longer one because of the scandal. I wouldn’t buy her album even with the promises of a golden ticket inside. #womp.

    • The Truth

      Her sales drop has nothing to do with her personal life. Real buyers of music have a life outside of the internet and gossip. It’s about her music. The single was a nice song but probably not the best choice for a first single. Doesn’t help she butchered it live several times. The song did decent on the charts but not quite smash like some previous singles. She’ll maintain through the holidays. She needs to release the Maxwell collab as a single with a good video. She usually has decent videos but “GOF” video was just okay at best.

      • theman

        Exactly, gossip infused folks care about that stupid stuff. People here for the music could careless. Besides y’all don’t really know anything anyway.

        • Oh

          Regradless A LOT of people (fans included) stop supporting her after that broke. You all don’t have to admit it, but, numbers don’t lie. That “people don’t buy r&b”, excuse isn’t true to every artist.

      • lilkunta

        the truth; it isnt internet gossip. It is FACT. There were pictures of her with MARRIED KASEEM in rome on dinner dates. Plus we have the divorce decree that states dates that intercede when AK was dating the STILL VERY MARRIED kaseem.

        It was definitely about her music. We felt like Ak was out sister, daughter, niece, friend. And just like we are honest with our family when they fvck up, we are are honest with AK. 2009’s ‘element of freedom’ barely sold 1million despite selling 400k its first week(but it was released in dec so it was bought as gift by many) and her tour wasnt a sellout like in past years. now its 3yrs later and despite ak saying she is married and even though she had their son we are still disappointed.

    • BlairWaldorf2013

      I need for people (mainly Black people) to STOP trying to judge a book you have NEVER read. I find it funny that we will support Rihanna who CAN’T seem to leave the man alone who BEAT HER REMEMBER. And we will support Usher who has PUBLICLY said he cheated on his wife with her FRIEND.

      But Alicia who is guilty of the same thing Beyonce does (that being keeping her PRIVATE life PRIVATE) and people want to jump on the bandwagon and don’t know the destination. I ask if ANY of us were PRESENT AND ACCOUNTED FOR when things happened between her and Swizz beats. Don’t worry I’ll wait for evidence of you being there in her life at that time.

      No, Okay then. I think a lot of women are mad at Alicia because they see her as the ‘other woman’ and they identify because they lost their man to another woman at some point or maybe he just didn’t want you at all even if there wasn’t someone else. Alicia represents that concept to Black Women and you know we are constantly trying to get, keep, or catch a man.

      Swizz Beatz actually did the honorable thing by his wife when he divorced her. Alicia let her standards be known if he TRULY wanted her. He choose, as men do when a woman makes her stand clear. Now black women may sit and say he should’ve stayed but if he wasn’t happy why continue just to satisfy the ‘public opinion’. Girl by….Alicia’s point is clear in the album YOU GET ONE (1) LIFE TO LIVE. You can’t live it worrying about what people who you will NEVER meet think about you, espcially when they’re opnion doesn’t count. Isn’t that what Rhi Rhi is doing with Chris (the woman beater) are you not going to support her now too??? Just asking…since everyone is so self-rightous.

      • DDA

        Hush up. Ain’t nobody got time to read this essay.

        • BlairWaldorf2013

          I see you clearly can’t since you think that’s considered an essay. Attention span people…get one.

        • eva

          People talk shit about Rihanna 24/7 what blogs you reading & nobody is here for usher either hence his minor relevance at the moment anyway personally I find Alicia stupid & basic not only was she with a man while he was married but she was with a man who cheated on his wife with some chick got her pregnantthen she STILL married him & had his; kid too However I wasn’t here for Alicia before the scandal she was always overrated IMO she’s a single artist to me the songs she releases are great but her albums are always boring & forgettable I bought Diary & gave her another chance with As I Am but its the same shit hot singles with the rest of the album putting me to sleep only song I liked that wasn’t released was Lesson Learned never again will I wastemy coins on A Keys her being a home wrecker has nothing to do with it

        • theman

          So if the homewrecker thing has nothing to do with anything, then why are u making note of it. Move on. Y’all don’t know that none of that homewrecker crap is legit anyway.

        • eva

          Um I’m making not of it because that’s what you talked about in your comment which I was replying tolike I said I think she’s a singles artist never really felt any of her album y’all kill me assuming someone is hating when they have an opinion lol and you don’t know the situation either so the same can be said yo you but it’s your opinion because mine is different if what I’m talking about?

    • KC

      This is just further proof that you can’t just blame poor promo for the lack of sales in R&B music. Alicia worked her ass off & Girl On Fire was a top 20 hit.

      People just don’t support R&B like they used to. Its horrible.

      I’m buying my copy by the end of the week. Its an amazing album IMO.

    • KC

      Whether you like the single or not it was everywhere – commercials, award shows, radio, sh*t ringtones.

      The song was big so quit blaming the single just because YOU didn’t like it.

      • lilkunta

        KC: the song was everywhere but IT WASNT LIKED. Did u request it on your local radio station? Ak’s vocals are so strained, that song is ANNOYING.

    • theman

      She’ll be steady for the most part, she’s a major artist.

    • I’m actually surprised that it’s not less…
      Alicia, I am indeed NOT here for these female anthems you keep rebuttaling every album….. I need something fresh and new, mami…. And this ain’t it.

      • mcnr

        name the female anthems she keeps “rebuttaling every album,” please?

        • sawa

          @mcnr thank you a lot people just like to talk jazz

    • Pokemon Trainer(Sinnoh)

      woah, I’m shocked that Alicia ain’t pushing at least 300k since she has a huge fan base 0_0 but I really think it’s because R&B music is not popular like how it used to be though. Imagine, Taylor Swift sold like 1million in a week as she’s considered a country/pop artist. She got the pop market to buy into her and support the album.

    • x

      Damn yo, she’s been promoting this for a while. Girl on Fire just wasn’t the business. She needs to release a new single; preferably Brand New Me, Listen To Your Heart, or When It’s All Over.

    • JOHNVIDAL

      She deserves bigger numbers and I really think she´ll exceed expectations. The album is AMAZING. Problem is Girl on Fire is the worst song. Keyshia Cole exceeded expectations and almost reached 100,000 copies

      And one more thing: if it´s true many people are not going to purchase Alicia´s amazing album cos of the married amd thing…. then Americans are RETARDED sorry. Firstly becouse that´s none of your business, artists like the rest of people have lives, and secondly because you don´t even know a damn thing about, were you there??? Shup up and buy the album you closed minded and uneducated human beings

      • lilkunta

        johnvidal: artists have lives yes. but when you preach in your songs about doing right, being moral, being honest, respecting women…then committ adultery, you cant be surprised that your fans have comments and opinions.

        also, we do know a damn thing. we have pictures, we can count back from her son’s nov birth to see she was impregnanted when swizz was still married to someone else, and we have the divorce decree in which kaseem admits he cheated on his wife with cheater keys.

    • R&b lives

      this is still really good for this era in music. She should be proud b/c it looks like she will also debut #1 in many European countries plus Japan. That is a good look…..

      Maybe she should have released the duet with Maxwell earlier to satisfy her R&B fans. Girl on Fire is good but kind of pop…..

      THis is stilll a great week for her though. SHe will go platinum worldwide and has already established herself as an R&B icon for this generation.

    • Tanya

      karma! i hope it flops even worse. she needs to own up for what she did. once she does, then she’ll earb my respect back.

      • Tone

        I don’t think she cares about earning your respect 😐

        • lilkunta

          tone ; and this is why her lastcd 2009’element of freedom’ failed and this cd will fail too. she doesnt respect her fans and doesnt care to earn their respect.

          leann rimes was caught and owned up to her adultery . she is now on tour and about to release a new cd.

          if you admit your mistaked we will forgive.
          ak is acting like she did no wrong so we will all save out $13 for artists who do care.

        • Tone

          @lilkunta chilllll.. Alicia Keys is & has always kept her personal life out of the public eye, why should she stop now. I’m tired of people claiming that she isn’t owning up to it or is denying it when she barely even speaks about the situation. You don’t know what she’s doing, has done, or owned up to. She doesn’t owe anyone, but the people involved, anything. Alicia Keys isn’t LeAnn Rimes. Also, most of the information, or “gossip,” that you’ve heard about this whole thing you’ve gotten from one mouth, Mashonda so you still don’t know what the full situation is..

          P.S. if anyone respected their fans, it would be Alicia Keys. There is no other artist out that is closer to their fans than her. I can bet that. I was just simply telling Tanya that Alicia Keys doesn’t owe her ANYTHING, unless she was married to Swizz Beats too. & “TEOF” did not “fail,” honey.

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